2026
Canada’s labour market: between cycles and structural change
Nicolas Vincent, Bank of Canada, May 26, 2026
External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent’s May 2026 remarks examine whether recent labour market weakness reflects cyclical swings or structural change. Job growth has slowed from 34,000 to just 6,000 monthly additions since early 2025, with unemployment rising from 5% to 6.9%. Vincent identifies three key trends: historically low labour turnover, creating a “low-hire, low-fire” environment; long-term unemployment at its highest since the early 2000s; and youth unemployment above 14%, with young people now a quarter of the long-term unemployed. For monetary policy, distinguishing between cycles and structure is essential—demand stimulus during structural change risks inflation. The Bank is strengthening its data tools while holding to its core mandate of low, predictable inflation.
Work in Progress: Bridging the Gap between Small Businesses and Canada’s Youth
Canadian Federation of Independent Business, May 20, 2026
This report examines the disconnect between young job seekers and small businesses, drawing on CFIB survey data (1,540 businesses) and Angus Reid polling (308 youth aged 18–24). Key findings reveal significant mismatches: 62% of businesses recruit through referrals, while 73% of youth rely on online job boards. Most youth (83%) prioritize wages, yet often expect pay exceeding their experience level. Nearly half avoid overnight or physically demanding work, while businesses struggle with rising costs. The report proposes mentorship, work-integrated learning, and strategic recruitment, alongside stronger collaboration among educators, employers, and communities. Notably, over two-thirds of small businesses remain unaware of government hiring supports.
Labour market experiences of recent working-age immigrants and non-permanent residents, 2019 to 2024
Job mismatch among core working age immigrants with postsecondary education
Statistics Canada, April 7, 2026
Two studies shed light on the labour market integration of recent immigrants and non‑permanent residents (NPRs) in Canada.
Recent immigrants arriving between 2019 and 2025 are finding jobs faster than ever before, but the road to meaningful employment is far from smooth. More than 31% struggle to secure their first role, often because employers demand Canadian experience they don’t yet have, or fail to recognize credentials earned abroad. Even when hired, many are overqualified—nearly one-third of immigrant graduates work in jobs beneath their skill level, a rate far exceeding that of Canadian-born workers.
The Impact of Competition Intensity on Labour Productivity Growth in Canada
Hassan Faryaar, Carlos Rosell and Nina Stegnjaic, March 30, 2026
Canada’s weak productivity growth over the past two decades has raised concerns about the country’s long-term economic performance and has renewed interest in the role of competition policy and structural reforms. Although limited competition in several industries is frequently cited as a contributing factor, empirical evidence on the competition–productivity nexus in Canada remains relatively sparse. Building on the Department of Finance Canada’s internal studies, this paper re-examines the relationship between competition and labour productivity growth using more comprehensive data and multiple measures of competition. Specifically, it employs three complementary proxies: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) of market concentration, the price-cost margin as a measure of markups and the Boone indicator capturing profit elasticity. This paper extends the existing literature by examining potential non-linear effects of competition on productivity growth and by assessing whether competitive pressures affect productivity leaders and laggards differently. Its results indicate that stronger competition is generally associated with faster productivity growth across most measures, though the relationship appears non-linear when competition is proxied by the HHI. Moreover, the paper finds that productivity growth among productivity leaders is significantly weaker in less competitive markets, highlighting the importance of market contestability for sustaining productivity growth.